Tech giant, Google introduces AI-powered weather forecasts on Search across Africa, for the first time.

The forecasts are made possible through advancements in Google Research’s AI-powered nowcasting model MetNet, which uses satellite data and ground observations to produce state-of-the-art precipitation forecasts in data-sparse regions of the world.

According to Google’s blog post, the technology can predict global precipitation with high accuracy within a 5km radius every 15 minutes for the next 12 hours — all under one minute.

One critical component for weather forecasts is dense ground radar, which is not available for the majority of the world where billions of people live.

The need for new approaches and better weather forecasts is especially pronounced in Africa, where ground observations are limited and global weather models tend to exhibit low skill. For example, North America has 291 radar facilities to track weather, while Africa has 37.

Consequently, the team at Google AI innovation hub in Accra has been working on AI-powered nowcasting for years. Their goal is to help Africans understand exactly when and where they should expect precipitation over the next few hours.

Using AI and satellite observations, the model can fill in the gaps, even in areas where radar was unavailable, overcoming previous limitations in data-sparse regions. It is Google’s first model to incorporate observations from a multitude of satellites.

“We are excited to see this work leave our offices in Accra and Nairobi and make its way to users all across Africa. We are engaging with local scientific communities to further evaluate and improve forecast accuracy globally. We’re also looking to launch the technology in additional regions with limited radar”, Emmanuel Asiedu Brempong, Research Engineer, Google Research Africa, said.

Instant, accurate weather: a better search experience for Africa

According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), over the past 50 years, 22% of deaths and 67% of economic losses caused by natural disasters were the result of extreme precipitation events.

Google’s weather forecasting tool has been built on machine learning models that precisely estimate current precipitation conditions. According to Brempong, the model has been used to provide early warnings, especially in Africa, where rainfall is sudden and heavy.

“You also saw the tremendous potential that having accurate weather forecasts for Africa can have in terms of agriculture and other industries that rely on weather for their decision making, not only for industry but also down to the individual,” he said.

In the same way, floods are one of the most common natural disasters. With a disproportionate impact in developing countries that often lack dense streamflow gauge networks, every year, floods cause thousands of fatalities worldwide, disrupt the lives of millions, and cause significant financial damage.

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According to Geoscience World, floods cause between 5,000 and 60,000 fatalities every year, affecting between 95 million and 240 million people, and cause between $21 billion and $33 billion in economic damages.

The Google AI for flood forecasting combines two AI models that process diverse publicly available data sources. The first is the Hydrologic Model: it forecasts the amount of water flowing in a river. The second is the Inundation Model: it predicts what areas will be affected and how high the water level will be.

All forecasts are displayed on its platform called the Flood Hub. On it, forecasts are updated daily. And, the information is free of charge, publicly available, and can be shared over social networks.

Flood Hub currently covers river basins in over 80 countries worldwide, providing critical flood forecasting for over 1,800 sites and covering a population of 460M people

Speaking for the development team, Florence Ofori told me in Accra that Floodhub alerts people in areas that are about to be impacted up to 7 days before disaster strikes. Google publishes the forecasts via alerts on Google Search, Maps, and Android notifications to help people access flood information.

“By warning organizations and people, we hope to empower them to act, limiting damage and loss of life”, she explained. Asked how the alerts get to the end users, She mentioned that the team is working closely with governments, the UN, and NGOs to implement and distribute flood alerts.

With Nowcasting now on Search users in Africa, it is expected that weather searches will be available across the continent with more precision than ever.

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